Nerve Center
Quinnipiac Polling Institute
Photo by Steve Kotchko
Posted 9/21/09
Analyzing the latest Quinnipiac University Poll is tough, because the surface numbers and what lies beneath can be deceiving. The ups and downs of popularity ratings in the survey reveal different diagnoses for the political health of Republican Gov. Jodi Rell and U.S. Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT).
Poll Director Doug Schwartz explained it this way: “We found (in the poll) with Gov. Rell, she’s down (in job approval ratings) but still strong. Sen. Dodd is up, but still weak.”
That may sound confusing, but Schwartz knows what he’s talking about. Deep in the nerve center of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, which sort of resembles the NORAD military facility at Cheyenne Mountain, CO, researchers ask a host of questions to determine how Connecticut voters relate to their elected officials.
Rell’s job approval rating, as high as 83% back in 2005, was still at 73% last spring. Then the exasperating budget battle began. By July, with no state budget in place, Rell’s rating dipped to 65%, and this month’s new poll records her rating at 59%--an all-time low for this governor.
It does appear however that the ratings slump for Rell is tied to the budget mess. Voters are cranky about their elected officials who bickered for months on the budget, after promising swift action to help the state recover from the recession.
While Rell’s ratings tumbled, Schwartz said they are still very good, noting that “neighboring governors would love to have those numbers,” because budget battles in those states sent governors job approval ratings into the dismal 35 to 38 percent range.
Coincidentally, the Democrat-controlled legislature in Connecticut fared worse than Rell. Voters gave the legislature a 35% job approval rating, its worst showing in six years.
It’s hard to determine exactly what voters wanted. Though they seem upset by procrastination in adopting a state budget, a 54% majority said in the poll that Rell should have vetoed the Democrat budget, and 56% feel she “copped out” by letting it become law without her signature. Political observers agree a Rell veto could have stalled budget negotiations for months to come.
The Q-Poll showed voters wanted Rell and the legislature to cut state spending, yet they also endorsed the Democrats idea of hiking the state income tax rate for wealthy residents.
Rell summed up the poll data this way: “The numbers are reflective of the year we had. We’ve had a difficult budget year. “I’ve had to make some difficult choices on things I knew people probably would not like, but I needed to do it. I needed to put our budget behind us, and move on.”
While Rell’s political health is relatively rosy despite lower Q-Poll ratings, Sen. Dodd still faces big problems even though his ratings are trending upward.
Plagued by personal and professional controversies over the last year, Dodd watched his once solid popularity erode to danger levels. In recent Quinnipiac polls, Dodd was getting trounced in potential matchups with Republican rivals—many of them virtually unknown to average voters and experienced political reporters!
Not only did Dodd’s job approval ratings slide, voters revealed that they no longer viewed the long-time Senator as an honest public official.
However, the latest Quinnipiac University Poll shows Dodd’s troubles may have bottomed out. “Sen. Dodd’s approval keeps edging up, and he is bringing down his high negatives,” said Schwartz. Instead of getting whacked by virtually every “generic” Republican who talked of challenging the Senator, in the new poll Dodd beat all but one in potential matchups--former GOP congressman Rob Simmons.
Despite the improvement, its doubtful Dodd staffers will be celebrating. While Dodd has recovered from prostate cancer surgery and back at work, his political health remains shaky.
Just 40% of voters surveyed view Dodd in a favorable way. About 49% of voters disapprove of the way Dodd is handling his job, and 51% of voters polled find Dodd untrustworthy.
All of that is disturbing for a veteran politician whose affable personality and evident intelligence have helped him to very easy victories every time he sought reelection.
If there is “good news” in the latest Quinnipiac Poll for Dodd, it is that in job approval, integrity, and favorability, the ratings are stable or trending up. Dodd has been visiting Connecticut to show how he’s doing his job, and talking in Washington about being a crusader for consumer rights on fiscal issues before the Senate Banking Committee that he chairs.
Though the list of Republican rivals for the 2010 campaign grows daily, State Democratic party spokesperson Colleen Flanagan claims GOP contenders who’ve feasted on Dodd’s bad fortunes soon will turn on each other. They must duke it out to see who will win the Republican U.S. nomination. If they beat up each other while Dodd focuses on his job, voters may view the Senate race in a new way, or at least that’s how Flanagan sees it.