….Aaaannd, They’re Off!
Photo credit: bigstockphoto.com
Posted 11/23/09
After Republican Gov. Jodi Rell announced she will not seek reelection, the field of potential candidates for her job grew quickly. Politicians always accuse reporters of judging political contests as a “horse race”, so why fight it. Here’s a tip sheet on the field of hopefuls, as of “post” time, Democrats first:
Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz:
Pros: Scrappy campaigner, not afraid of a primary. She has a high profile based on her job as the top state elections official. In a recent Quinnipiac University poll, Bysiewicz was the favorite candidate among Democrats polled, and came closer than any Democrat in beating Rell, who had not announced her “no go” decision when the poll was done.
Cons: “Susie B” can be feisty. Often dubbed the “ice queen” when she was an ambitious state representative. Could be too much of a contrast for voters used to the “Snow White” image of Jodi Rell as governor.
Stamford Mayor Dannel Malloy:
Pros: Affable, easy going personality could strike a chord with many voters, along with his experience as mayor of Stamford, that booming city on Connecticut’s Fairfield County “gold coast”. Malloy gained valuable statewide campaign knowledge when he ran for guv in 2006.
Cons: He ran for governor in 2006. Malloy lost the Democratic nomination to New Haven Mayor John DeStefano. These days in politics, past losers often get plastered with “that was then, this is now”, and it’s time to give someone else a chance.
Former State House Speaker James Amann:
Pros: Jim wants to be the “blue collar” regular guy candidate for governor, fashioning himself as the philosophical successor to the late Gov. Bill O’Neill. Amann can be likeable and humorous.
Cons: Suffers from a “shoot from the lip” mentality. His quotes often get him into trouble, creating a “cringe” factor for the audience. Angry with Gov. Rell over budget issues, Amann, as Speaker, said he didn’t care if Rell came down with carpal tunnel syndrome after vetoing Democratic budgets. That didn’t go down well with the public, especially since Rell is a breast cancer survivor.
Ned Lamont:
Pros: Lamont, who gained national media attention when he tried to unseat controversial U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman back in 2006, now has an appetite for statewide office, and is exploring a run for governor. It remains to be seen if the passion he generated over the Iraq war issue can be cranked up for more mundane state topics such as budgets and taxes.
Cons: Ned’s a millionaire and spent big bucks on his Senate effort. He could do that again in 2010, but now Connecticut has a public financing law for campaigns, and there’s already been some editorial pressure on Lamont to forgo his personal largesse and play by the rules of public financing. Also, while Democrats welcomed Lamont’s self-financed Senate bid, Ned may find his gubernatorial aspirations challenge the ambitions of other more veteran Democratic candidates who’ll tell Lamont they have “paid their dues” over many years—so back off.
State Sen. Gary LeBeau:
Pros: In a state populated by pols whose vision for Connecticut is constricted by two-year or four-year election cycles, LeBeau, co-chair of the legislature’s Commerce Committee, brings a refreshing perspective, calling for long-term economic and financial planning to revitalize the state.
Cons: Not well-known enough to threaten better organized candidates. May suffer from the view that he’s in the race just to draw attention to the need for better economic planning. After all, LeBeau is a retired teacher who may be pushing one more “lesson” for Connecticut.
Ridgefield First Selectman Rudy Marconi:
Pros: If mayors can run for governor, why not a first selectman? Marconi can call himself a “fresh face” in statewide politics.
Cons: Rudy who?
Now let’s take a look at the Republican field of gubernatorial hopefuls. It’s smaller right now, because the GOP was hoping Rell would seek reelection. However, there is movement:
Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele:
Pros: Can say he’s been just a “heartbeat away” from the top spot for the last four years, learning strategy from Rell, and learning about the legislature as he presided over the State Senate. Fedele also is a former state representative. Can tout his experience in business as CEO of a firm specializing in information technology.
Cons: Needs to hone political skills quickly. Minutes after Rell told the media she would not seek reelection, Fedele held his own press “avail” outside the Governor’s Office and claimed Rell told him she would back him in the gubernatorial race. The next day Rell said Fedele wasn’t really a candidate yet, and in any case, she was supportive of “any capable Republican” interested in running for governor.
State Senate Minority Leader John McKinney:
Pros: John is the son of the late GOP Congressman Stewart McKinney, a much-admired Connecticut Republican. Political parties don’t automatically nominate “legacy” candidates, but McKinney’s well-remembered family name should be a plus if he really decides to jump into the gubernatorial race. He’s a strong communicator with a reasoned voice.
Cons: McKinney had been expected to run for his dad’s old congressional seat in the Fourth District this year, but he bailed out before getting in, due to family issues including divorce. Republicans backing other candidates may ask if McKinney can commit to a long and probably uphill campaign against the Democrats.
State House Minority Leader Lawrence Cafero:
Pros: As leader of a tiny 37-member Republican caucus in the 151-member House, Cafero knows how to tangle with Democrats and is definitely not afraid of a fight—in fact, he relishes the scrum. Talented in mixing humor with hardballs in making his point as a Republican spokesman.
Cons: Suffers along with all legislative leaders who try for statewide office in being a “big wheel” under the Capitol dome, and a relative unknown out on the hustings. Larry’s strength as a legislative leader could be a negative in the gubernatorial fray. Rivals can say Cafero can’t be considered gubernatorial “timber” because of his often combative tone.
Finally, one late “scratch” and two possible new “entries” in the gubernatorial field—two Republicans and one Democrat:
Former Associate U.S. Attorney General Kevin O’Connor:
Young and handsome, O’Connor could be an attractive GOP candidate for governor with a Clark Kent-like good guy image who served as U.S. Attorney and Associate U.S. Attorney General in the Bush administration. However, O’Connor mulled the gubernatorial a bit, then told a TV interviewer he’d decided against a 2010 run for governor for family and career reasons.
State Sen. Sam Caligiuri:
Caligiuri has been running for the 2010 Republican U.S. Senate nomination to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd, but last week GOP party chair Chris Healy asked Sam to consider switching to the 5th District congressional race to take on Democratic Congressman Chris Murphy. Caligiuri said he was willing to take a look, then said in a TV interview, friends were urging him to also consider running for governor. Stay tuned.
UPDATE: On Nov. 24, Caligiuri issued a news release indicating he is withdrawing from the U.S. Senate race, and declaring his candidacy for the Republican nomination in the Fifth Congressional district to challenge the Democratic incumbent U.S. Rep. Christopher Murphy.
Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal:
Blumenthal already said he’s running for reelection as attorney general, but after Rell dropped out of the gubernatorial contest, he says friends have been urging him to take a new look at the governor’s race, and in the words of TV’s fictional psychiatrist Dr. Frasier Crane, Blumenthal has replied: “I’m listening.” You are free to figure out if Blumenthal is really interested, because this guy has considered, then rejected running for governor more times than Bret Favre has retired and returned to the NFL!