Poll Master Doug Schwartz
Photo by Steve Kotchko
Posted 7/19/10
The clock is ticking toward the August 10th statewide primary elections, that will decide, among other things, the Republican and Democratic nominations for governor, and the GOP nomination for U.S. Senator. Last week, the Quinnipiac University Poll issued a new survey on the big primary races, and the coming general election campaigns.
In the U.S. Senate race, the poll revealed that former World Wrestling Entertainment executive Linda McMahon is staying well ahead of her two GOP primary rivals financial guru Peter Schiff and former congressman Rob Simmons. Simmons, by the way, put his campaign on ice, though his name remains on the ballot.
More importantly, the poll showed that though McMahon still trails her Democratic rival, Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, by 17 points, the trend line has McMahon gaining consistently on Blumenthal over the last several months. Blumenthal had a humongous 41 point lead over McMahon back in January.
“McMahon has the momentum, she is inching up on Blumenthal,” said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz. “She has a long way to go, but she has a lot of time and a lot of money,” he said.
McMahon has spent millions of dollars of her own money on the campaign, waging a TV ad blitz to boost her name recognition and familiarity with the voters, even if only on the “tube”.
While McMahon is closing the gap vs. Blumenthal, there are still troubling indicators for her in the Quinnipiac Poll. Blumenthal continues to have an impressive job approval rating as attorney general at 72%, and when asked if they have an overall favorable opinion of him, 60% of voters said “yes”, while only 43% of voters said “yes” for McMahon.
Though 61% of voters in the poll believe McMahon has strong leadership qualities (71% for Blumenthal), just 38% of those polled feel McMahon has the right kind of experience to be a U.S Senator, perhaps a reflection on her controversial association with pro wrestling. By contrast, 65% of voters polled feel Blumenthal has the right stuff to be a Senator.
Even more interesting, though Blumenthal went through a barrage of negative press earlier this year tied to his “misstatements” about his military service record, 60% of voters tapped in the Q-poll see the Attorney General as “honest and trustworthy” compared to just 47% for McMahon. “On every characteristic that we asked about, McMahon scores lower than Blumenthal,” said Schwartz.
Reacting to the poll, McMahon said she is “encouraged” and believes her main message is “resonating across this state.” She hinted that once she gets past the GOP primary, her campaign will put Blumenthal back in its gunsights. “The voters of Connecticut don’t yet know the real Richard Blumenthal—we will spend the next few months making sure they do,” she said.
Blumenthal campaign manager Mindy Myers said ‘the people of Connecticut know Dick Blumenthal is going to stand up to the special interests and fight for them in Washington”, and she blasted McMahon’s campaign spending in the range of $20 million as “obscene”. Myers said TV ads “can’t disguise a record of putting profits ahead of people, threatening the health of her (wrestlers), degrading women and marketing violence to our children.”
The Quinnipiac Poll also tested voter’s opinions in the Connecticut gubernatorial race where the candidates quickly put their own spin on the numbers.
In the Democratic battle, between convention-endorsed candidate Dan Malloy and his primary challenger Ned Lamont, Lamont continues to lead Malloy by a margin of 20 points among registered Democrats surveyed. However, when the poll dug deeper, and spoke to voters who says they are likely to vote in the August 10th primary, Lamont’s lead shrunk to just nine points.
Malloy was ecstatic. “There were skeptics in the press who didn’t think this race would tighten, well, guess what, it just did,” said Malloy. “There are people who don’t think I’m going to win, well guess what, I’m going to,” he declared.
After a televised Democratic gubernatorial debate back in June, the Lamont campaign decided against any additional matches, saying their candidate would talk to voters directly around the state. Malloy claims that decision backfired.
“The Lamont people miscalculated,” said Malloy. “They thought the price they’d pay (for forgoing new debates) would be one or two days of bad press, but the people of Connecticut expect debates,” he claimed.
Justine Sessions, communications director for Lamont, doesn’t see it that way. “The (Quinnipiac) poll follows the trend line dating back to January—Ned is expanding his lead among registered Democrats.” She said Lamont is “taking nothing for granted” and is “pounding the pavement meeting with families across the state.”
On the Republican side of the gubernatorial race, millionaire Tom Foley continues to thrash his primary rivals Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele and businessman “Oz” Griebel. Fedele comes closest to Foley—but that gap is a potentially insurmountable 35 points!
Fedele won a legal decision after Foley went to court trying to block the Lieutenant Governor’s access to about $2 million dollars in public financing from the state’s Citizens Elections Fund. So Fedele had a chance to stick it to Foley in a televised statewide debate. He could have portrayed Foley as a rich boy bully trying to prevent his rivals from getting public funds. Instead, Fedele simply defended his use of the public financing law.
Whatever the Quinnipiac Poll reveals about the top primary battles, smart candidates know it will be the turnout that decides the races. A primary election in early August, when a good portion of voters are away on vacation, or too hot and sweaty to leave air conditioned comfort to go to the polls, can produce a weak turnout. In the past in Connecticut, primary upsets have occurred.
Candidates who work the phone banks, organize to get out the vote, and insure that their “base” of voters actually gets to the polling places will be rewarded. Candidates who assume the summer primary will be “top of mind” for citizens, may be crying in warm beer after the votes are tallied.