A Worried Guv?
Photo by Steve Kotchko
Posted 7/19/11
In Andrew Lloyd Webber’s long-running Broadway musical “The Phantom of the Opera” the Phantom writes to the frightened operators of the old Paris opera house and orders them to put on a production he’s penned. “Should these commands be ignored,” the Phantom intones, “a disaster beyond your imaginations will occur.”
In Hartford and Washington in recent weeks, politicians have been warning of dire consequences in that same fashion.
President Barack Obama said if a bipartisan deal to raise America’s debt ceiling cannot be reached by August 2 he “cannot guarantee” that millions of Social Security recipients will get their checks as scheduled. “This is not just a matter of Social Security checks,” the President continued, “these are veterans checks; these are folks on disability and their checks.”
Others in Washington predicted catastrophic effects if a stalemate continues on the debt ceiling issue, including a partial shutdown of government services. “It’s like asking what will happen if a comet hits us,” said federal courts official Dick Carelli. “Who the hell knows?”
Meanwhile, in Hartford, Democratic Gov. Dannel Malloy last week unveiled a doomsday budget plan designed to make up much of the $1.6 billion dollars in deficit-fighting labor concessions that evaporated when the initial concessions deal was rejected by state employee unions.
The new plan orders some 6,560 state employee jobs cuts through layoffs, leaving positions vacant, and retirements. It could shut down some court houses, social services offices, DMV branches, state river ferries, and erode many existing state services.
Oh, the humanity! Despite all the hand-wringing from the nation’s capital to the state capitol building, are these threats real? Or, are they just phantom fears? Do you really think members of Congress and the President want to stiff Social Security beneficiaries? These are voters and elections are coming.
On the State side, the ramifications are equally dangerous for Malloy. His job approval ratings in the polls already are low. Allowing the doomsday budget plan to take effect would trigger more voter resentment. Example: “You hiked all my taxes and now I have to drive 30 miles to get to a DMV office?”
Churning public fears over government cuts in a fiscal crisis is nothing new in Washington or Hartford. It is a tactic to focus public and political attention to the problem at hand, assuring that all interests understand a remedy must be found. It is an effort to put the brakes on runaway political maneuvering that crops up when the stakes are high.
There is no guarantee all parties will come to their senses and work together for solutions in Washington and Hartford. Government shutdowns or service cuts have occurred in some past crises, but they are usually temporary.
There are signs in Washington and Hartford that rescue efforts will succeed.
“My hope is that we will avoid the catastrophe that would come from failing to raise the debt ceiling by a meaningful solution that cuts the deficit, reduces federal spending and increases revenue by closing many of the tax loopholes and giveaways that exist right now,” said U.S Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT).
On Tuesday, the President told reporters he was encouraged that compromise efforts were moving forward, but said it’s time to start “talkin’ turkey” and get a deal done. “We don’t have any time to posture,” said Obama.
Blumenthal remains cautious. “In Washington, I’m not confident or complacent about anything,” he said. “I’ve seen the polarization and paralysis that is so persuasive, but I am hopeful the deal will be done.”
After Malloy issued his doomsday plan, interests that would be hurt churned out press releases and statements urging the Governor and the state employee unions to try again on a concessions deal to avoid the negative consequences, and on Monday, union leaders took a big step in that direction.
SEBAC (State Employees Bargaining Agent Coalition) officials voted to change the complicated bylaws that many feel doomed the original concessions agreement. They adopted a new simpler ratification process that should make it easier to approve any new or revised concessions deal.
Malloy was ebullient reacting to the voting reform. “It’s good news that the unions have changed their ratification process to one that respects the will of the majority,” said the Governor. He said he’d send his top negotiator to talk with the unions to see if some issues in the original deal can be worked out. Said Malloy: “Given the limited number of issues identified as problematic, it shouldn’t take more than a couple of days to have a clarified agreement that’s ready to be voted on by all state employees.”
If a deal is worked out (and we’ll update you here if that occurs), state workers will need to have an expedited ratification vote in the next few weeks to rescind some of the layoff notices that have already gone out.
So the high drama in Washington and Hartford will continue for a while as July turns to August and we will learn if these fiscal challenges produce calamity or salvation.
The issue is best illustrated by another classic, Charles Dickens’ “A Christmas Carol”. Near the end of that venerable holiday chestnut, Ebenezer Scrooge, haunted by the ghosts of Christmas Past, Present, and Future is shown a gloomy gravestone by the frightening specter of Christmas Future, presumably Scrooge’s own stone. The old crank, hoping for redemption, asks the ghost: “Are these the shadows of the things that will be, or are they the shadows of the things that may be, only?”
That’s the same question being asked in Hartford and Washington. Can the potential dire consequences be proven to be just phantom fears after all?